Can variable pricing work for all artists, or just a chosen few?

Variable pricing seems to work for Reznor.
But can it work for everyone?

When Radiohead released In Rainbows under a "pay whatever you want" model, critics hailed the move as ground-breaking. While only about 40% of users paid, and those that did paid far less than the cost of a typical CD, the lack of a label to gobble up profits made the project a success.

Trent Reznor followed by releasing an instrumental album under a variable pricing scheme, followed by a completely free album (which will later be released for sale in stores). Again, critics applauded the innovation and the releases received widespread coverage.

But Radiohead and Nine Inch Nails are both long-time critical favorites, and both had plenty of early-mover goodwill. Would either have been as successful without the waves of free publicity that surrounded their releases?

Lesser known artists like Saul Williams have had mixed results releasing music under a variable pricing structure. Williams' The Inevitable Rise and Liberation of NiggyTardust allowed fans to name their price: either $5 or free. Despite having Reznor's marketing push behind him, the results were disappointing as only 20% of users chose to pay. Predictably, when Reznor expressed frustration with those numbers he was slammed by proponents of free pricing.

More recently, mashup master Girl Talk has released his latest album under the Radiohead model. Will listeners be willing to pay for an album that, while undoubtedly creative, consists entirely of samples of other artists work? Interestingly, a user who chooses not to pay for the album is presented with a followup page asking them to explain why. It will be interesting to see if Girl Talk releases the results of that survey.

So far, the results of variable pricing have been mixed: some high profile success stories, some lesser-known disappointments. But what happens when the model is adopted by artists who don't have favored status with the critics? And more interesting, what happens when the model is common enough that a "pay what you want" album is no longer considered news? Is this model the way of the future, or a limited niche market that can only work for a select few?

I suspect it may be the later. And I suspect it won't matter, since artists may ultimately have little choice but to put the power in the hands of the consumers. Time will tell if that turns out to have been a good thing.